Qatar’s chances of winning the World Cup stand at 0.35%, higher than all the other qualified Arab teams.
AI technology has been used to predict how well team’s at this year’s FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 will perform during the global sporting event.
The data, collected by The Analyst utilised an AI model, that ran 1000 simulations of results from the event and ranked each team’s chances of winning from least probable to most likely.
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The report indicates that France is the most likely champion of the tournament, with a 17.93% chance of maintaining its title.
However, the French will have to do significantly better than they did at Euro 2020, where they were eliminated in the last-16 stage.
Brazil came in second in the ranking, followed by Spain.
Despite having a dreadful month in June, in which it lost all four of their Nations League games, England ranked fourth.
The Three Lions’ odds of winning its first major prize in 56 years are 8.03%, according to the report.
Argentina is only the ninth favourite despite having a 33-game winning streak and two titles in the previous year.
Portugal, powered by Cristiano Ronaldo, is the seventh favourite.
The most likely team from Africa to win the World Cup is Senegal, but the team has only been given a 0.19% probability to do so, while Cameroon, Costa Rica, and Saudi Arabia have been given zero hopes of winning the tournament.
The host country’s chances of winning the World Cup stand at 0.35%, higher than all the other qualified Arab teams.
France vs Brazil
In recent months, The Analyst’s global rankings model has been quite tight between the current champions of the men’s football tournament, France, and its record champions, Brazil.
Both teams occasionally hold the top spot. However, France has consistently been the side most likely to win the World Cup from the initial draw, according to The Analyst’s model for predicting tournament results. France remains to be their contenders to win the World Cup in Qatar.
The comparative difficulty of Brazil’s path, particularly its prospective quarterfinal opponents, is one of the reasons The Analyst’s supercomputer chose France over Brazil.
Group G includes Switzerland, Serbia, and Cameroon. If Brazil wins the group, it will take on the Group H runner-up, which will be either Portugal, Uruguay, Korea Republic or Ghana.
It is most likely that the quarterfinal opponent will be Group E’s winners, which could potentially be Spain or Germany, two of the seven teams with the highest likelihood of winning the World Cup and two of the top six teams in The Analyst’s team rankings.
The second-place team from Group C, which consists of Argentina, Mexico, Poland, and Saudi Arabia, will face France in round 16, if France wins its group.
The winner of Group B, likely to be England as predicted by the football analysts, or the runner-up from Group A, will then play in the quarterfinals.
The Netherlands is expected to win the group, while either Senegal, Ecuador, or Qatar would place second. Therefore, either the organisation’s fifth-ranked squad or a team with a maximum ranking of 23 would be in France’s most likely path to the semifinals.
Contextually, it also has to do with the team’s proximity to the Group of Death, commonly known as Group E. The Group of Death can be anything, depending on how it is defined. If the top two or three teams are together, then Group E with Spain and Germany might be the winner of the title.
The other group that qualifies for the title is Group F – includes Belgium and Croatia – which has two teams among the top 10 teams in The Analyst’s rankings for the competition.
Another way to look at it is to look at the average Elo scores of the teams in each group. This method is used by the football analysis organisation to establish team rankings, and it confirms that Group E is the Group of Death, while Group F is no match.
The rankings
Below is the full list of findings:
- France – 17.93%
- Brazil – 15.73%
- Spain – 11.53%
- England – 8.03%
- Belgium – 7.90%
- Netherlands – 7.70%
- Germany – 7.21%
- Argentina – 6.45%
- Portugal – 5.11%
- Croatia – 2.31%
- Denmark – 2.03%
- Uruguay – 1.48%
- Mexico – 1.37%
- Switzerland – 1.00%
- Poland – 0.82%
- Iran – 0.60%
- Japan – 0.48%
- United States – 0.46%
- Wales – 0.41%
- Qatar – 0.35%
- Korea Republic – 0.35%
- Serbia – 0.24%
- Senegal – 0.19%
- Ecuador – 0.17%
- Australia – 0.02%
- Ghana – 0.02%
- Canada – 0.01%
- Morocco – 0.01%
- Tunisia – 0.01%
- Cameroon – 0%
- Saudi Arabia – 0%
- Costa Rica – 0%
